By Justin Poublon
December 11, 2017 - 10:30 PM CST | 19 0
Our fast paced, northwest flow weather pattern continues. Tuesday (tomorrow) will be the coldest day of the short season thus far; not by much but enough to mention.
By late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning already snow will be making a return to Wisconsin. With these fast moving, clipper type systems it is hard to generate more than 3" of accumulation due to quick movement and moisture deprivation. The strongest I can remember only brought up to 3-6". Not every situation is the same and exceptions can be made. The 00GFS & NAM are trying to make some exceptions right now.
00GFS paints 0.3 to 0.6 QPF for Wednesday, NAM around 0.2-0.5. All at relatively high snow to liquid values for early December. I'll admit I haven't taken a look at profiles yet but I will certainly have to if this trend continues. The end result is 10"> along a narrow band through Wisconsin. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN! However not impossible and I'm not one to turn my back on the possibility. Not sure where all that moisture is coming from? Magical GFS math? 0.5" QPF is not hard to do with a localized heavy snow band. So this will be the challenge over the next 24 hours and it might come down to a few hours before arrival.
For now this is my forecast and it fits with a strong clipper average. Once everything settles down this is probably what it becomes. If mother nature throws the 10" curveball we will be watching and ready to act on it. Lake enhancement will be possible too. Will reassess in the morning and go from there. No need for knee jerk hype train reactions yet.