Wisconsin Weather

March to Begin Very Cold in Wisconsin

By Justin Poublon
February 25, 2019 - 3:36 PM CST | 2,358   0

The calendar is close to spring but temperatures are getting farther away!!

February will end like it started with temperatures 15-30°F BELOW AVERAGE developing this weekend into early next week! The coldest stretch begins this weekend; peaking between Sun, March 3 & Tue, March 5 where current forecasts show high temperatures in the teens/single digits and lows below zero. Wind chills could reach -30°F on a couple occasions. We will get into the specifics as we get closer! Temperatures will remain below average into through most of next week.

THANKFULLY we are no longer positioned at the coldest time of the year and the coldest air may target states west of Wisconsin. While it will be very cold it won't be as cold relatively speaking. Still impressive. The graphic below shows the scale of the cold across the United States for Sunday, March 3rd roughly.

GFS temperature forecast for March 3 2019. There could be several days well below average in early March.
GFS temperature forecast for March 3 2019. There could be several days well below average in early March.

The temperature forecast graph for Wisconsin Rapids over the next 10 days. By this weekend you can see how far down we will be relative to average.
The temperature forecast graph for Wisconsin Rapids over the next 7 days. By this weekend you can see how far down we will be relative to average. (look at the y-scale)

On the Green Bay, WI climate graph it will look a lot like our last cold spike. When you get down that low you approach record levels. Over the last 12 months Green Bay is running -0.4°F below the 30 year average. Whether you like it or not...get ready to add to that deficit!

Green Bay Climate graph showing the forecasted temperatures could spike well below 2 standard deviations, similar to late Feb in terms of magnitude.
Green Bay Climate graph showing the forecasted temperatures could spike well below 2 standard deviations, similar to late Feb in terms of magnitude.


CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

The CPC supports our forecast in the 6-10 Day period. They continue it into the 8-14 Day. The below average temps will likely end somewhere in the 8-14 day time-frame.

The climate prediction Center has placed much of the country below average with a 90% or greater chance for below average temps in Wisconsin
The climate prediction Center has placed much of the country below average with a 90% or greater chance for below average temps in Wisconsin


BOUNCE-BACK WARMTH?

Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel? Models show bounce-back warmth by March 11th or thereabouts. Just like last time we COULD see a big warm up following the coldest stretch. Our jet stream pattern is similar to big waves on the ocean; large troughs are followed by large crests. Up and down between extremes. So if you get the trough; it's safe to assume you'll get the crest. This prediction is far from certain. Last time it didn't mean much long term.

March is known for wild swings and it's hard to say what will come later in the month. For now I would keep your jacket handy. Thanks for reading!

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