Wisconsin Weather

Historical Analogs for Thursday-Friday

Dec 17 2017 4:42 PM CST| 0 Comments | Wisconsin | Weather Forecasting

CIPS analog guidance has a few interesting analogs to compare with for the Thursday - Friday storm.

This one from November 27 of 1995 was my favorite because it showed a two part system with incoincident areas of snow accumulation. The first was across northern Minnesota. The second/third was across southeast Wisconsin and heavier! lol so don't get caught up in early model simulations yet. This issue is possible with a system like Thurs-Fridays due to the warm advection occurring well ahead on Thursday and the main system pulling through as much as 24 hours later! Long way to go but I believe this is going to be the challenge. The longer the snow duration, the more opportunity for screwed up forecasts.

Nov 27, 1995 analog from CIPS. Looks similar to Thurs-Fri.

I arrived at 1995 Nov 27 when sorting the top analogs by 500mb height. The other analog was Dec 9, 2008 which I remember as being a long duration event with two main accumulation periods. For the top 10 analogs during this CIPS period, heavy accumulations occurred in all corners of the state and in all shapes and coverage. This system could hit anywhere across Wisconsin.

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