By Justin Poublon
April 8, 2017 - 5:44 PM CST | 54 1
(from facebook post)
SUNDAY -> MONDAY
Beautiful day today, thunderstorms expected tomorrow mainly north. A low pressure system will ride the warm front which will arrive tomorrow. This means another nice day of temps around 70's central/south, temps could be lower if clouds are thicker like latest models suggest. For northern Wisconsin chance of thunderstorms through the day and overnight.
Beginning tomorrow afternoon or night, isolated to scattered thunderstorms *with hail* are expected (see map). One or two could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Wouldn't be surprised to see accumulating hail. It will be hit or miss elsewhere, mostly miss on the storms. T-storms may redevelop on Monday afternoon across southeast Wisconsin but this is less certain. Chance for rain showers statewide Monday.
(NOTE - Five day forecast is for Wisconsin Rapids because of it's central location. Temperature for Sunday could be under-forecast) - JP
DISCUSSION - WEB EXCLUSIVE
My thoughts on this event remain unchanged from yesterday. Not going to get carried away with the first one of the year. The limiting (distinguishing) factor tomorrow is that the surface boundary layer will generally not be unstable enough to support strong storms at least across Wisconsin. The only place I can see surface based storms will be along the surface warm front, but I think these will tend to go elevated quickly and not establish themselves. Western IA, northern IA maybe have better chances of that. T-storms will tend to go elevated after dark unless they have a strong supply of inflow or pooled moisture. Dew points will be underforecast which further weakens the surface based argument. Yesterday I mentioned that a warmer-central Wisconsin, if cells pop in central Wisconsin(Wautoma, Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point) during the mid-late afternoon we will know why. Fun to think about.
Lid strength courtesy Earl Baker and Skip Talbot indicates that inhibition will hold for the majority of the warm sector. Another sign that storms will likely form overtop of it around a level of 1500-2000ft. Of the analogs I've seen; few had inhibition of this strength and many had large hail reports. Mid level lapse rates are strong, combined with low freezing level, near-entirety of the updraft located above it, and MUCAPE between 1000-2000k is the recipe for H-A-I-L (Or HALE if you like rock music).
The short range models have been advertising one or two strong cells or multicells traveling from Eau Claire to Iron Mountain in association with a noteable helicity track. Just because a storm is elevated instead of surface based will not make a difference for northern Wisconsin tomorrow. We tend to view elevated as lesser, however many of the worst storms in Wisconsin history were elevated! So this is why I've taken the time to write. No surprises. No "there was no warning".