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APRIL 2020 FORECAST - How did we do?

Only two months in. March went very well (see review). April was not the same level of success however I've learned a few things.

APRIL REVIEW

April 2020 monthly forecast recap
April 2020 monthly forecast recap

My main goal is not to be totally wrong; for example avoid precipitation A++ when it's B--. As I develop this method I may use near average if the signals are not strong enough or I'm uncertain. I wasn't certain enough to draw in a below average precip zone considering wetter tendencies on the last few years.

The temperature forecast across Wisconsin was pretty good. I didn't expect the colder temps across the Midwest which may have something to do with a lack of southwest flow/eastern US ridging. I thought +AMO would have a stronger influence which it did not. But at least I was right across Wisconsin.

The precipitation forecast could have been better. Happy that I hit the above avg forecast in northern Michigan! Disappointing to miss that drier than average zone in western WI. Initially I had this precipitation forecast nailed but I backed off thinking I was too biased towards the AO. This was my FEB 14th prediction...

"FEB 14 - If we take +AO Feb trend into Apr we see some interesting anomalies in the models. A tendency towards below average temperatures in the Great Lakes region. Below average precip in western/northern WI..."

1989 and 1990 AO analogs showed dry signals across the central US. Initially when considering other teleconnection analogs I had that dry signal further west into western WI. Just didn't work this time but the signs were there.
1989 and 1990 AO analogs showed dry signals across the central US. Initially when considering other teleconnection analogs I had that dry signal further west into western WI. Just didn't work this time but the signs were there.

Here is what I predicted on MAR 1...

"The maps are based on top analog years of 1989-90 which were colder, dry(er) than average. Coming out of March which will be wetter, warmer than average. Perhaps well below average precipitation in April? Latest MJO forecast is heading from 8 to 3-ish range which is on the colder side of things."

Predicted the snow event in mid-April on MAR 31...

"It's not out of the question to have a snow event somewhere in here if the AO goes negative...mid-month maybe?"

I can do better being more consistent carrying initial predictions/trends through the entire forecast and being clearer on my final prediction.

NEXT STEPS

Today I'm testing ways to add more detail to the monthly forecasts by comparing top analog years on a daily/weekly basis. From this I predict we can say what the weather could be like week to week within that month. I feel like I'm on the right path.

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