Overnight storms heading out to sea soon in NE WI. Damaging wind gusts the main threat for Marinette, Door County. Watching the cluster west of La Crosse...not certain it will hold together as it heads east but it looks solid still.
Complex of storms with history of severe weather including damaging wind gusts exceeding 60MPH will enter NW WI within the next few hours. Some weakening as the complex moves through NE WI/UPPER MI early SAT AM.
Wind shear of 20-35kts not strong enough to balance out the 8,000 SBCAPE. Out-of-control outflow on the southern fringe in NODAK. Segment advancing through MN will probably intensify this evening...main event. Heading into NW WI overnight.
On the road. Heading to Eau Claire, adjustments from there.
Scattered storms will move into NW WI overnight. A severe storm is possible but gradual weakening is expected. Watch in MN NOT extended to the east & storm reports marginal. Not too concerned atm. Tstorms possible throughout tomorrow.
WEDS - Keeping an eye on Illinois. Interesting 850mb flow pattern from 12zNAM. Situation is complicated by morning convection. Plenty of uncertainty. Could see this event surge as we get closer given wind fields. I will chase it if setup comes together in the northern half of IL.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - Updated today 7/10/2020 through SEP 2020. Had to wait on NOAA error preventing data download/access. Thanks!
JUN MONTHLY REANALYSIS - was very good! How does it work? Reforecast previous month precip and temp trends based on actual monthly values for teleconnections. This helps isolated the forecast method to say that If I were able to correctly predict teleconnection indexes; it's possible to forecast trends months ahead. Always some uncertainty; for example what happened with AO in Nov 2019.
Backyard intercept. Was so close to heading southwest earlier. Waiting worked out
numerous thunderstorms continue across southern WI. Some are strong or severe with strong wind gusts, heavy rain. Large cluster of cells now entering SW WI will push east this afternoon.
Severe T-storm threat will continue for at least a few more hours. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary threats. Cell in Douglas county heading east looks vicious. Stay safe! Gust front will push off this activity into the rest of northern WI overnight.
A couple t-storms slipping through central WI thanks to an old OFB into strong instability. Not present on the models but there nonetheless. Possible these storms continue...also possible they fall apart.
Severe weather has been decreasing in Wisconsin year over year.
Heavy rain west of Eau Claire over the last 12 hours. Rainfall in excess of 5", impassable roads and water rescues reported in Baldwin! This convective complex is moving east today likely to weaken somewhat. Isolated to scattered tstorms may develop across WI too. -JP
Long chase today, frustrating for the most part with long process of elimination from Portage to the WI/IL border. 2020 strikes again! Persistence did pay off on this cell NW of Rockford IL. Had a hard time keeping up with it, many appearance changes over the course of an hour. I will be out of the office until Monday PM unless ma nature has other plans. Should have enough footage for a short YouTube episode. On to the next!
Choices choices choices. My concern is not committing to either and getting stuck in between. Process of elimination.
Very impressed with dynamic aspect of the approaching low/short wave. Needs to destabilize. Expecting the NAMhres to verify for southern WI.
Updated T-storm Forecast for this afternoon. Video forecast posted on the storm event page. Stay safe and take care! Thanks! https://www.wisconsinwx.com/storm.aspx?s=228
12z short range models show highest threat for severe storms across southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Sim radar img at 6PM.
Plenty of spotty convection throughout the warm sector as the warm front (WF) pushes into WI. The WF will not make it as far north as initially forecast, probably up between Madison and Oshkosh area. Working on more updates stay tuned.
Cool storm a few minutes ago!
Soaking rain atm from WI Dells to Shawano. Rain is stationary within the red dashed zone and will continue into early TUES AM. Rain totals around 1-2" in marked zone. No severe weather.
radar estimated rainfall showing the heavy rains just southwest of the targeted area last night...in the vicinity of Waterloo, IA. One report of 6.0"!
12z NAM instability field for this afternoon could yield a severe storm in northern IL. It's possible this storm activity brushes the WI/IL border? I'm a bit skeptical of the situation however watching closely and will let you know if things change.
Nothing happening right now. Models handling the situation POORLY. Still expecting periods of rain and storms this aft/evening across S & E WI.
Heavy rain with storm total rainfall into the 2-3" range near the WI/MN/IA intersection point and region immediately south before 7am MON. 1-2" in adjacent areas, perhaps east towards Madison.
Funnel cloud/possible tornado east of Winneconne, WI. Around 5:45PM on Saturday.
Elbow getting worse and probably going to need medical attention in the days to come. If you're wondering where I am.
Between 4:49 and 5:02PM this evening looking toward Omro first pic, HWY 45 west of Winneconne second pic. Two weak brief tornadoes happened within or just before this timeframe I believe. I saw some stuff but wasn't enough to call it a tor. Video to share.
pretty cloudy this AM will keep instability down. Pocket of weak of sbcape developing in SE WI which could support one or two briefly strong cells today
Weak rotation otherwise non severe cells moving northeast thru the Steven's Point region.
Isolated tstorms this morning, Steven's Point with the most action atm. Not much lightning. Weak rotation within that cell cluster. Isolated showers for the rest of S WI could grow into tstorms today as they move NE.
Reinjuried my elbow yesterday. Bunch of swelling this time. I dislocated the swelling with a wrap which gave me a third elbow on my forearm! Still getting work done but is a little disruptive given it's my dominant arm. I'll be alright.
STORM CHASING - Really just need some storms. Same ole issue. Slow start. Few opportunities. Wasted opportunities? I don't want to relive/reshare old chases...I wish to start anew. New footage. New adventures. I'm at the cusp. Ready to move forward. Just waiting.
JUN TEMPS - running above average across the central United States. Last few days have been perfect/cool in Wisconsin.
QUIET WEATHER - 11 days with severe weather in 2020 thus far. 2019 was slightly quieter with 9 by this date. Slow historically both years. Usually when I point it out it turns active. Not my intention. Any day now. 2019 had 34 days with severe weather after this date (and still a below avg year). Waiting... tough when nothing is happening. I think god wants us focused on something else right now.
Testing a new t-shirt design! Coming in July.
WIWX 9.58 - updated site navigation, composer (for posting comments) improved - now prevents empty posts. T-shirt/Merch link and donate page added to the MORE/Resources section. Small changes here and there including comment notifications via email appearance. Fixed issue with monthly forecasts + improved experience. Worked on admin tool org. Next work item is to reintroduce comments to profile pages which have been missing since comment rework in Fall 2019. Thanks!
Heavy rain along the HWY 151 corridor. Storms nearly stationary. Could be a quick 1-2". More rain approaching from the west.