Not shooting for initiation with this event.
Will move late in the event when location is clear.
Otherwise you spend all day/night driving for little gain.
Especially when the forecast path/corridor is your backyard.
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I'll be chasing Tuesday night. Could be live streaming from the office during the afternoon. On the hunt during the evening. These nighttime complex events are not great for chasing. Goals are simple this time: lightning, lightning illuminated structure, and a live stream opportunity. Shouldn't have to travel too far from KOSH.
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Isolated/scattered showers and storms working through today. A strong t-storm not out of the question but concern remains low. Severe storm west of Hinckley, MN has weakened.
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10:15AM - cell coming out of MN looks like trouble. No warnings yet. Additional development possible. Overall severe threat low. It might just be this one storm that does something.
MONDAY - Scattered thunderstorms likely across northern WI Monday during the day (better chances afternoon). Isolated chance of a rain shower or storm in the south based on latest data. A strong t-storm or two is possible supported by the SPC Day 2 Outlook. I'll let you know if anything changes.
THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS - Here are what my thunderstorm forecast zones mean:
STRONG is somewhere between general and severe. A storm can produce a weak tornado but be non-severe otherwise.
SEVERE equals numerous severe storms with all hazards, potentially widespread.
SIGNIFICANT is for the worst of the worst, major outbreak or widespread concern...I haven't used a SIG zone yet in the 3 years I've been using this criteria.
TARGET used to narrow down a zone of maximum impact.
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I've been interested in video forecasts lately. I can present so much more information that way. The BLOG method of communication feels old and outdated with regards to forecasting weather...the blog is still good for stories and recaps. Just discovering HOW & WHEN to use. Will require website reorganization.
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Brainstorming a new forecast update structure. Hard to know what's going on if you always have to dig for it. Solution seems to be putting a sample of all activity right on the surface, dig from there.
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FYI - All email messages seem to be hitting my spam/promotions folder. Maybe you can find a way to unspam it? Another reason I recommend having SMS/text messaging preference set. We have really good deliver-ability with SMS. I will be re-enabling blog posts to send via SMS on the next website update (disabled previously for reasons).
Updated monthly forecasts this morning removing some detail from the maps hopefully avoiding another May precip forecast repeat. Long weekend ahead and I'll be thinking of new things to try. I feel the need to simplify. We expanded so much over the winter and may have gone to far? Still trying to locate my niche. Thanks for your continued support! Talk to you soon!
THU 8:40 - morning round was focused along and south of the WI/IL border. Expect afternoon t-storm redevelopment to take place in Illinois. Gloomy day to begin, perhaps some sunny breaks later.
Monthly forecasts updated again through July with more details.
blah-vection so far over southern WI thanks to lack of destabilization and tstorm activity in IL. Not expecting much tonight, however wouldn't rule out a strong cell in there somewhere. Cells moving E-NE.
T-STORM OUTLOOKS - I'm considering a change to the outlook criteria that we've had for years. I'm talking about the "General | Strong | Severe | Significant | Target" zones. I don't see much reason to have a STRONG zone when yes, maybe it's better to do it based on storm coverage & frequency. I.e one severe cell vs. ten, much like the SPC. I feel we need to make a change but still want to be different from SPC Convective Outlooks. We would definitely keep the target zone because that is such a huge deal to me/us. So weighing that out now. If you have any ideas feel free to comment below. Thanks!
5:55PM - gradual weakening in t-storm activity continues across the region. Wouldn't rule out a strong cell but I think concern is decreasing.
342PM - thunderstorms will slide into southwest WI over the next few hours. A strong to severe storm with hail is possible.
narrow band of rain showers and windy conditions pushing east through WI. Gusts up to 50 MPH possible. I know it's already a little windy out there so just a heads up. Take care!
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periods of rain and snow developing, increasing in coverage/intensity this afternoon. 2.2" near Rochester, MN suggests the storm is coming in close to our forecast.
Rain showers will move in this aft & early evening. Less than 0.5" rainfall accumulation. Snow showers possible overnight north.
At 3:15PM - Small window over the next few hours for an isolated severe storm or two over far eastern WI. Large hail the primary threat. Overall concern remains low. Storms should move out quickly into Lake Michigan.
Did mention possibility of severe weather on this day a week ago, then removed it as models changed. Wish I'd stuck with it a little longer.
an isolated t-storm or two is crossing northern WI atm. Hail up to a quarter inch but mostly pea sized and lots of it. Path will take it near Ladysmith, Rib Lake, and Merrill. Possible that it continues into NE-WI.
I've create a new storm event for the middle of next week. Seeing an interesting pattern that could bring strong thunderstorms if everything comes together. Also April and May monthly forecasts updated
Personal note - March has been a rough month battling sickness in the household. Total lack of energy and creativity. Extra sleep seems to be helping. Today is the first day I feel like I'm getting better and hopefully I can carry over into tomorrow. Fingers crossed! Thank you for your patience!
The AO has been strongly positive since late December but recently we've seen it return to neutral for the first time since late January. Fitting that we seem to be in the midst of a stormy pattern.
Raining pretty good along HWY 10 from Osseo to Stevens Point to north of Green Bay. Rainfall estimates over 0.5" in spots means forecast is on target. Some snow will mix in overnight in the northeast before ending...minor accums if anything. Quiet night in the south with a scattered rain shower. Have a great night!
on the next website update will provide SPC convective outlook maps with links to full text. I haven't decided exactly where these maps will be... probably on a separate page. Will add to the live map. A few other things cooking too. Even though I make our own t-storm outlooks I think it's a better experience to have both.
Needed to get out of the house. Swollen streams in the area with snow dusting. Thinking about the farmers hoping they can get off to a better start this year.