Radar & Current Warnings

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Having an issue with the warnings feed today causing warnings to end prematurely. Won't be able to fix until after the event. 
Waiting on the 12Z run to make final forecast
Okay, chances are I have no clue what I am talking about and that I am wrong about this since I am a total noob at making my own forecasts, but when looking at GOES 16 imagery and the surface analysis this is what I interpreted. 

Basically, there is an an area of slight wind shear along and just east of the boundary between the moist air stream from the Pacific and a dry slot that I think might provide just enough instability to create a band of isolated CBs ahead of the boundary embedded in tonight's rainfall leading to "a few rumbles of thunder" in parts of the area during the rain event. 
Looks like NC Wisconsin is going to get the most rainfall
Quiet weather has given me the opportunity to take break. Much has changed in the last three weeks. Getting ready for storm chasing season.
Snow ratios look okay, except eastern Wisconsin. SLRs above 20:1 were not what I expected. Really interesting. Overage somewhat balanced out by lower QPF.
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
4.1"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
2.6"
Life events have made it hard to share info this week. Hope to be back on schedule soon!
Watching a winter storm for Mar 1-2 that looks to impact either central or southern Wisconsin. Plenty of uncertainty. 
Winter Storm Warning issued. Better early than never I guess! Storm arrives after 6PM Saturday night.
SNOW DEPTH - 14-25" of snow on the ground in northern Wisconsin. You will add to that snow-pack this weekend with the third winter storm in the last seven days. Meanwhile southern Wisconsin has forgotten what snow looks like.
Forecast prepared for Saturday night but need to wait until 12Z model run complete to publish. Too much disagreement between models this morning mostly in terms of location. The strength differences we can deal with.
Very happy with the snow forecast last night. 7" amounts were mentioned for snow belt. Barely missed in Eau Claire but could not have predicted that. Freezing rain was generally correct, on the lower end of the expected range. Still snowing in the UP of Michigan.
Thought it was interesting that the 00Z Canadian run had two camps for the weekend storm. Camp A aligns with GFS, camp B is off to the east and includes the operational. I wonder what the 12Z will look like
Want to push an update tonight before we start talking Thursday and this weekend. Lot of new stuff coming. 
Slipping deeper into the current weather pattern. Changes coming in early March when upper level pattern retrogrades.
Last of the storm slowly moving out. Mostly rain at this point. 
12GFS showing a fun snow event for this weekend. Working on a member blog discussing the uncertainty. 
Ice in Oshkosh
Freezing Rain
FREEZING RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.13"
Only after a full day of heavy snow with 10" accumulations, Douglas county finally gets a Winter Storm Warning. Ashland never got a warning and they had 12". Are these counties that sparsely populated or that used to snow? I'm sure there is a good explanation. Did these warnings not make it to our system?
FLOOD ADVISORY - The National Weather Service issued a Flood Advisory in southern Wisconsin. 0.5-1.0" of estimated rainfall on frozen ground is causing minor flooding on highways 'n such. Travel safely! More rain is expected overnight into tomorrow.
Freezing Rain
FREEZING RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.01"
Forecasting mixed precipitation is not easy. In this situation just trying to broad brush central Wisconsin with "Icy". Sleet can get very slippery too and the temperature profile in northern Wisconsin is more supportive of slippery conditions. A little warm in the south. Stationary front is sitting over central Wisconsin. 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.3"
A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain to Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday. It will not snow, sleet, or rain the entire time. Precipitation will arrive in two main waves. Freezing rain/sleet is expected due to cold air at the surface across central and/or southern Wisconsin. Early estimates suggest ice accumulation could exceed 0.25" by Tuesday night. The details will matter and with shifts in storm track still possible, I will wait to add that detail until later.

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