Radar & Current Warnings

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Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.3"
A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain to Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday. It will not snow, sleet, or rain the entire time. Precipitation will arrive in two main waves. freezing rain/sleet is expected due to cold air at the surface across central and/or southern Wisconsin. Early estimates suggest ice accumulation could exceed 0.25" by Tuesday night. The details will matter and with shifts in storm track still possible, I will wait to add that detail until later.
Based on January data, the best matched years suggest March could be pretty wet. I'm not confident on this idea yet but throwing it out there anyway.
NORMAL vs. AVERAGE: AVERAGE is the statistical mid point. NORMAL is the variation back and forth between extremes. Wisconsin will NEVER have an AVERAGE winter in terms of precipitation or temperature on a daily resolution. It is colder than AVERAGE and we've had a NORMAL winter w/ respect to temperature fluxes. The NWS should know better than this. This is a recurring misconception and my pet peeve.
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.5"
SNOW TONIGHT/SUN AM - A storm system will come together southeast of Wisconsin and lay down a ribbon of snow across the great lakes, including southeast Wisconsin. 2-5" is possible in the southeast corner with lighter amounts west of that. Snow should be in and out by noon on Sunday. I suspect the *majority* of snow totals will be in the 1-3" range. The best chance for 5" will be in Racine/Kenosha counties where the NWS has implemented an advisory.
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
1.0"
The storm tonight, Friday, and possibly Saturday belongs to a decreasing PNA/ AO teleconnection regime, the best pattern for heavy snow in Wisconsin. Next week we head deeper into this pattern with a deeper western trough digging in the southern stream. Mid-range models are not that interesting for Wisconsin. They do show a storm system during the 2/13-2/16 timeframe crossing the country further to the south. Maybe models change to support a bigger storm in future runs? At this moment I'm betting that the peak time for this pattern is our current system as we flux into the western trough. Just not thrilled with next week yet.
8-12" is expected near and south of the WI/IL by midnight Friday. Snow is expected to begin at or after 6PM on Thursday and could be heavy at times. Lesser amounts are expected north of I-94, to an inch or less in central Wisconsin. Some adjustments may be needed tomorrow as details become clearer
Two systems will ride the boundary in the coming days, the first arriving early Friday morning. Potential exists for several inches of snow accumulation in southern Wisconsin by Saturday night. Cold continues into next week.
Snows over in Oshkosh! 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
4.5"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
3.5"
I've got the dash cam doing a long duration timelapse tonight. Taking black betty to the ice races in Oshkosh in an hour or two. Waiting for snow intensity to increase.
The 24-48HR period this winter has been especially tough
Working on a composer update that will make writing on WIWX a better experience! 
Wind chills to -30F in the north this morning. Friday morning could be even a little bit colder!
Top teleconnection analogs suggest the 2/3 -2/9 timeframe will be cold. 1996 name drop, one of the coldest group of days in recent Wisconsin weather history. There has been agreement on the end of February cold for awhile now. The month overall will be cold.      
Snow passing through this morning. Up to an inch of accumulation possible.
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.1"
The second craziest thing that's happened this winter.8" of snow in southeast WI is more than most places in the snowstorm up north! Saw it for about 20-30 consecutive runs bouncing around southeast Wisconsin lol. There were many ways this could have been missed. I saw it as minor/small scale wrap around, weird surface low relocation thing. Bigger snows to the north took priority so I pushed this off into it's own separate bucket planning to deal with it but never did. Never thought of it as a 4-9"er. When MKX issued the advisory I thought they were just doing what they always do lol, but it was a great move on their part. Just fell through the cracks.
Plenty of updates, fixes, and changes since Saturday in addition to a northern Wisconsin snowstorm. Going to slow down this week. Always looking ahead towards future storms and projects.
A few thunderstorms in southeast Wisconsin tonight! Small pea sized hail is common with these but severe weather not expected. This cluster will change to snow overnight and may produce a quick burst of 1-3" in the southeast! From tstorms to winter wx advisory. That's pretty cool! -JP
Forecast looking really good right now
Two main precipitation regions splitting west and east of Wisconsin right now. The space between will fill across north-central Wisconsin today as the low moves through. The western region is at the left exit of a diverging upper level jet. It has the strongest forcing, what I would call the true deformation zone, and starting to look pretty good. The right is mostly WAA, accompanied by weak upper divergence and the moist axis. Both areas have strong 850mb WAA. I see this happen often where weak returns are found between two clumps of precip. North-central is in between with dry slot sneaking into the south. You'd have a better chance are reaching forecast snow accums in either the west or east clump. This explains the trends in models this morning.
Strange forecast on the AO today with many taking a nose dive by Feb 1. I don't buy it yet since I do not see it on the models, but -AO of this magitude will certainly lead to cold. Then on the PNA side you have one member totally going negative while the rest trend toward positive. 
Our first snowfall prediction map for the Sun-Mon event. Forecast coming soon. Watching freezing rain potential in central Wisconsin, possibility of locally higher amounts in the 6-12. Rain to the south. Keeping Tues AM wrap-around precip out of for now
WIWX 6.2 launched this afternoon! Don't forget to refresh your browser cache or hit F5 + CTRL to update page appearance if it looks weird. Will try to fix this for next update.
southern trend in most models today following the EC's lead. At the surface most models are pretty close to the EC. The ensembles are leaning in that direction. At 850-700mb I see some things that need to be sorted out. Storm is coming on shore now. GFS CMC storm track is actually from Dubuque to Sheboygan, EC slightly south of that. 
Moisture for the Sun-Mon storm will come from eastern Mexico and western Gulf of Mexico. What I call a "moisture front" arrives just as storm #1 pulls away. The moisture will get buffeted slightly early next week but will be ready for #2 as it crosses the country. The stage is set moisture-wise for some interesting weather late January and Feb. If we can get the AO to slide back positive while holding onto a weakly negative PNA we will be in good shape. Curious to see how things come together in that 6-14 day period. It's been such a boring winter to this point. 
A low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes Sunday 1/21 -> Mon 1/22. Rain, snow, and mixed precipitation is expected with this system. Models have been trending north since the start of this week suggesting more rain for Wisconsin. The storm track will KEEP CHANGING as we get closer, but this is what it's looking like right now.
There are issues with the tag and category pages that will be fixed on the next release. 

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