A few recent changes/improvements: 1. disabled yearly membership option. Might bring it back in winter. 2. New "Send all Comms" option on the account page if you wish to receive all wiwx alerts regardless of location. 3. fixed the GPS location not updating bug on the LIVE MAP. 4. When membership payments are canceled, your membership continues until the renewal date. Quiet weather is hard but I keep pushing.
Pretty quiet weather!
A strong cell or two possible this aft/tonight in western WI. Rain and clouds have kept the atmosphere stabilized limiting overall threat. Some talk of a SVR WATCH. Some models develop a few more storms tonight.
Isolated tstorms are possible this afternoon & evening across Wisconsin. A few storms moving into western WI right now.
Fewer warnings than before across the state. Keeping a close eye on it yet....not over. Based on reports it could be worse. Think we'll be alright. Strong to severe storms could make it all the way to Lake Michigan...specifically those in central WI which are also trying to get into southern WI.
Cells losing some organization on latest scans. Looked primed to roll not long ago. Told you this event would be hard to pin down. The night is young. I'm taking a break rn, will check back in a couple hours. I will head out locally around 3am if needed...not too far. Just enough to get in on some of the action.
Interesting to watch these three cells. Not warned currently. Heavy rain primarily. Southernmost cell is a right mover that could dive into central WI. Instability gradient in play.
Dealing with supercells west of Eau Claire atm and TOR WARNING near River Falls is legit. I believe this activity will continue eastward along the instability gradient. Busy night? Eyes on
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH for northern WI tonight. Scattered strong tstorms are developing in northwest WI heading east overnight. A few cells could move into central or southern WI. Severe weather possible including damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
CAPE gradient NW to SE through WI. Keep an eye on that tonight.
Large supercell set to track near & north of Eau Claire this evening...we'll call it "Big Boy". TOR WARNINGS earlier but weak rotation, since reduced to SVR TSTORM. What about additional development? Strange than were not seeing more cells popping. Suggests Big Boy will be the focal point tonight.
T-storms expected to develop in the region along the Mississippi River north of Minneapolis late this afternoon. They will push east this evening into the overnight hours. Severe weather is possible. Setting the stage with this update. Will keep you posted!
Overnight storms heading out to sea soon in NE WI. Damaging wind gusts the main threat for Marinette, Door County. Watching the cluster west of La Crosse...not certain it will hold together as it heads east but it looks solid still.
Complex of storms with history of severe weather including damaging wind gusts exceeding 60MPH will enter NW WI within the next few hours. Some weakening as the complex moves through NE WI/UPPER MI early SAT AM.
Wind shear of 20-35kts not strong enough to balance out the 8,000 SBCAPE. Out-of-control outflow on the southern fringe in NODAK. Segment advancing through MN will probably intensify this evening...main event. Heading into NW WI overnight.
On the road. Heading to Eau Claire, adjustments from there.
Scattered storms will move into NW WI overnight. A severe storm is possible but gradual weakening is expected. Watch in MN NOT extended to the east & storm reports marginal. Not too concerned atm. Tstorms possible throughout tomorrow.
WEDS - Keeping an eye on Illinois. Interesting 850mb flow pattern from 12zNAM. Situation is complicated by morning convection. Plenty of uncertainty. Could see this event surge as we get closer given wind fields. I will chase it if setup comes together in the northern half of IL.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - Updated today 7/10/2020 through SEP 2020. Had to wait on NOAA error preventing data download/access. Thanks!
JUN MONTHLY REANALYSIS - was very good! How does it work? Reforecast previous month precip and temp trends based on actual monthly values for teleconnections. This helps isolated the forecast method to say that If I were able to correctly predict teleconnection indexes; it's possible to forecast trends months ahead. Always some uncertainty; for example what happened with AO in Nov 2019.
Backyard intercept. Was so close to heading southwest earlier. Waiting worked out
numerous thunderstorms continue across southern WI. Some are strong or severe with strong wind gusts, heavy rain. Large cluster of cells now entering SW WI will push east this afternoon.
Severe T-storm threat will continue for at least a few more hours. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary threats. Cell in Douglas county heading east looks vicious. Stay safe! Gust front will push off this activity into the rest of northern WI overnight.
A couple t-storms slipping through central WI thanks to an old OFB into strong instability. Not present on the models but there nonetheless. Possible these storms continue...also possible they fall apart.
Severe weather has been decreasing in Wisconsin year over year.