blah-vection so far over southern WI thanks to lack of destabilization and tstorm activity in IL. Not expecting much tonight, however wouldn't rule out a strong cell in there somewhere. Cells moving E-NE.
T-STORM OUTLOOKS - I'm considering a change to the outlook criteria that we've had for years. I'm talking about the "General | Strong | Severe | Significant | Target" zones. I don't see much reason to have a STRONG zone when yes, maybe it's better to do it based on storm coverage & frequency. I.e one severe cell vs. ten, much like the SPC. I feel we need to make a change but still want to be different from SPC Convective Outlooks. We would definitely keep the target zone because that is such a huge deal to me/us. So weighing that out now. If you have any ideas feel free to comment below. Thanks!
5:55PM - gradual weakening in t-storm activity continues across the region. Wouldn't rule out a strong cell but I think concern is decreasing.
342PM - thunderstorms will slide into southwest WI over the next few hours. A strong to severe storm with hail is possible.
narrow band of rain showers and windy conditions pushing east through WI. Gusts up to 50 MPH possible. I know it's already a little windy out there so just a heads up. Take care!
periods of rain and snow developing, increasing in coverage/intensity this afternoon. 2.2" near Rochester, MN suggests the storm is coming in close to our forecast.
Rain showers will move in this aft & early evening. Less than 0.5" rainfall accumulation. Snow showers possible overnight north.
At 3:15PM - Small window over the next few hours for an isolated severe storm or two over far eastern WI. Large hail the primary threat. Overall concern remains low. Storms should move out quickly into Lake Michigan.
Did mention possibility of severe weather on this day a week ago, then removed it as models changed. Wish I'd stuck with it a little longer.
an isolated t-storm or two is crossing northern WI atm. Hail up to a quarter inch but mostly pea sized and lots of it. Path will take it near Ladysmith, Rib Lake, and Merrill. Possible that it continues into NE-WI.