Launched multiple updates this week with another ready for next week. Having intermittent issues with Google maps and geolocation, mainly on first load on the community page. I have bigger plans to change this page and process so we'll wait until the time is right. Researched teleconnections and historical data yesterday which has caused me to rethink plans. So at a natural break that I'm taking advantage of. Will see where my motivation is after new years. Been itching to post member only content too but not in a writing mood. A little frustrated with current weather pattern that's been cold and dry, so studying historical events such as feb 2 2011. 
Light snow or flurries will be possible statewide starting tomorrow morning lingering on and off all the way into Monday morning. 1- 2" of snow accumulation possible statewide; the best chance for snow across southeast Wisconsin during the day Sunday. Harsh cold really takes hold Monday night with high temperatures near zero or the single digits possible Tuesday! (Img - Snow accumulation by noon Monday)
Well that was an interesting run of the GFS lol 3.5 days of continuous snow and 23" later. I've seen a lot of crazy stuff that never happens in the 170 hr & beyond range. This is right up there with the best of them. Might have to hold onto this one.
Thought CIPS was interesting today for Friday-Saturday AM analogs. It seems this pattern more times than not produces accumulating snowfall across southeast Wisconsin. Obviously this was based on one run with no consistency. We're playing with fire a little bit. If 00Z models trend west we'll know whats coming. A low pressure track pointed at western Lake Erie is what we're looking for. The 18Z NAM for what it's worth, at the edge of it's range; is encouraging. 18Z GFS slipped east a bit from 12Z but close to NAM.
FEED ME. Since last major update made about 50 small changes. The website is now stable and ready for new features! Will be working on those through the end of the year.
Flurries possible tonight into tomorrow. 1-2" expected for central Wisconsin late Fri PM into Sat AM. It was at this point on Monday where the Wednesday system went bananas. I don't think that will be an issue this time. 
Just finished with all the bug fixes and adjustments following the latest update and there were several. Planning to add a few new things on the next round but the dev schedule will be more relaxed this winter. The website is coming together nicely! Will have to start recruiting people once the community section gets going. This should be a fun and welcoming place for everyone interested in weather! Slowly but surely we will get there.
Do not feel good about 3-6" forecast in NE WI. Many places between 6-8", the potential for which was well advertised by models despite having the wrong location. The decision making process needs to be balanced between human and forecast model. Too much human for me on this one. 
Strange burst of snow found it's way into the neighborhood overcoming the dry air. Every run except the hopwrf I've looked at since the 18z has trended slightly north with the heaviest snows tomorrow. Closer to an axis that goes through Kaukauna or Wrightstown. Still waiting for precip to break out across Minnesota, though I wouldn't say it's behind schedule yet. Exciting times!
12Z models in agreement on low track across southwest Wisconsin thru Wednesday. This would bring the most snow across the central or northeast. NAM today showing QPF 0.4-0.8", NAMNEST 0.3-0.7", and GFS at 0.2-0.5". Snow ratios will be in excess of 11-1. I think the GFS is most realistic. The NAM is hinting at the snow bandy characteristics of the event, that some *spots* could be in excess of 7". Question is where??
Having trouble with the blog engine on mobile tonight and can't fix until tomorrow, so sharing this here now. An early look at Wednesday morning reveals our next chance for snow. I think model simulations are bullish in terms of QPF. This could be compensated for by higher snow to liquid ratios? Potential for lake enhancement along lk Michigan. Want to see overnight runs before getting head over heels.
The afternoon round came together farther south than expected and the advisory busted. They issued too aggressively/early. Forecast models overall have performed great. Its the small scale features which have not been positioned correctly. Will take our lumps now and note this heading into the heart of winter. Perhaps starting with placing less confidence on short range models.
T-2" observed this morning right on forecast. Another chance for 1-3" locally across southern Wisconsin today.
An inch or two of light snow is expected Monday morning and during the morning commute for some of us. This radar simulation is for 5AM. Light snow showers or drizzle will be possible during the afternoon with little to no accumulation. Colder Tuesday into Wednesday with a slight warming trend and more light snow chances later in the week.
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Short range models pull lake enhancement in Door county Saturday morning behind a sharp vort max. This could turn a 1-2 "er into 2-4" locally across the Peninsula, perhaps into the Green Bay area too by Saturday morning. Thus the snow advisory issuance. The story for 95% of Wisconsin remains the same with T-2" expected.
Gusty winds overnight broke my neighbors flag pole and relocated my fire pit cover. 
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