Band of heavy snow & sleet will moving northeast today and weakening with time. Snow amnts generally in the 1-3" across the southern half of WI (near 6" along the Mississippi River).
Snowy one arriving from the west. Dropped 9" in far western IA earlier. Not expecting that much in WI but there could be locally heavier amts in the la Crosse region.
Very cold tonight. Lows dipping below -20F in Western WI
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS - I was surprised by what happened in eastern MN and have no explanation for it. Most models showed narrow band of heavier amts somewhere across southern WI...turned up on the far western side, last second short range model trend. Many reports over 8" in the north.
Round of heavy white stuff will be the fun for this afternoon. Snowfall rates around 1"/hr possible.
Winter storm underway. Scattered mixed precip this morning (snow NW). Accumulating snow by this afternoon as heavier bands move in from the southwest
NWS alerts filling up this morning. Large watch area. We'll see who goes to Warning or advisory before tomorrow. A consistent 12z model run suite would be great.
NWS issues watch. 4-8" in northeast Wisconsin. Expect the rest of WI to fill in with some form of watch, warning, or advisory.
NOT impressed with snow reports this AM in southern WI. Still snowing and hopefully we close the gap.
Wow. Models NEVER showed the heavy snow band THAT far north. Surprising. Just when you think you've got it all figured out.
Heavy snow band pushed further north than expected overnight bringing 3-6"+ as far north as Fond du Lac County. Sharp cut off in snow amts just north of that. Snow totals underperforming near and south of the WI/IL border. Still snowing in southern WI.
Light snow will redevelop tonight. Another inch or two by Saturday AM.
Large lull in the storm this morning. Plenty of dry air cycling through.
So many issues. Too much dry air entering the western side of the system in between main forcing mechanisms. Contributing to earlier end time for heaviest snow, though light snow is expected overnight. Heaviest snows also stayed in northeast IA/NW IL, blocked moisture transport north? Correct magnitude...wrong location. Still snowing around the state. Mixing with sleet along the WI/IL border.
Plenty of dry air pushing into western Wisconsin. Heaviest snows falling just south of 7-10" zone. It might end up alright.
short range models have very narrow but heavy band of snow today. Too aggressive in the SW? Not much outside of that band.
Watching FRI JAN 1 for yet another system. Medium range models now suggest this system is likely to impact WI HOWEVER consistency is very poor. Confidence is low.
Watching a possible storm for TUE/WED next week. It's persisted on many runs now GFS & EC and could be significant if it actually happens. Still several days away and much could change. I'll take a closer look after Christmas. Happy holidays!
Calm before the storm. Snow will develop quickly today across eastern MN/NW WI.
THU AM - Wind chills expected to reach -10 to -20F range in Wisconsin on Thursday morning (colder NW). -20 to -30F in Minnesota.
winter storm is ending, light snow for a couple more hours in the far east. Storm total snowfall on the high end of forecast...9" report near Middleton.
Snow reports showing well this morning with a couple 5" amts from Dubuque to Madison area. More snow will fall today in Southern WI with the heaviest accums in the east. The best snow bands are slipping sligjtly further north this AM....as far as Green Bay and up the lake Michigan shoreline where the NWS extended the Advisory. Snow ends before 6PM tonight.
SUN - MON (10/25-26) | EC precipitation simulation still showing weather maker for this timeframe. I'm not impressed with the big picture and think this system will be a minor deal. Let's see how the models trend in the coming days.
On Thursday morning a period of rain and maybe even a thunderstorm will move thru southern WI. No concerns. Impact should be mostly an inconvenience to morning commute. The main system comes through Wisconsin Thursday night.
Monday light snow/rain chance for southeast WI. Weak disturbance but could produce minor accums on grassy surfaces wherever it tracks.
GFS showing quite a bit of snow accumulation thru OCT 28, mainly northern WI. WE'LL SEE. Certainly an active pattern consistently showing up. I'll believe it when I see it.
strong pressure falls along the cold front passing through today
Right turn? Thunderstorms last night took a hard right turn into southern WI. This happens as the updrafts backbuild towards the strongest instability...in this case storms were pulled south & west. Made me chuckle when compared to the outlook. Mother nature still has a sense of humor.
severe warned cell cluster diving into southern WI. Taking the best instability with it. Not over for east central WI yet.
I want to do BI-WEEKLY 7-day forecast updates. SUN PM/MON & THU? Try to do it at a higher quality. Getting into a rhythm would be incredibly helpful. Think I need more tools in the toolbox [ i.e more forecast graphics to choose from]. Dew point & weekend forecast graphics are top of my list but depends on where the development priorities are.
MONTHLY FORECASTS are updated thru OCT 2020.
New website update pushed live tonight includes a few improvements to 7-day forecast graphics. Watching for bugs..want it to be stable ahead of bigger changes to come. I seem to be drifting back into development mode. New stuff in the works. Talk to you soon!
New t-shirt design will come eventually. Had to make changes to the first attempt because nobody liked the upside-down lettering. I always test them first.
Working on the 7-DAY graphic jpegs. Successfully added storm events shown by impact color class using test events. Will go live on the next website update.
Trying to make 7-day forecasts more enjoyable to create & view. Working on the next evolution of the 7-day forecast editor tool. First attempt at integrating the storm events system (test storm marked by red shading) which operates on an HOURLY basis. Thought this might be a nice way to differentiate from other wx sources. This is on the admin side and planning to copy it over to the HOME page. I also want to integrate with automated/local 7-day forecast system graphics...specifically the .jpeg images...on a regional basis where if you're county is not targeted for a storm event, the red shading won't appear. Large project. Making progress.
Trending cooler than average in mid-August, precip near average after a wetter start for some
Everything back up & running today at IEM who supplies our map elements. Their servers lost power during the derecho in IA yesterday. This type of outage has never happened before on WIWX. Also caused the SMS system to error on send. Added a new failsafe this AM that will allow SMS to still send even if maps are down.
Not a good day. Compounding failures. Got swallowed by heavy rain near Monroe before I could get in final position. Feel sick to my stomach seeing the damage in Iowa. The IEM data warehouse has been down since 11AM so maps are still not updating. Tomorrow is a new day.
significant severe weather situation for northeast IA at the moment with widespread straightline wind gust damage...wind gusts of 70-90MPH. This complex will move near/along the WI/IL border this aft. Additional storm development likely across the rest of southern WI. Eyes on
Storms in Iowa causing wiwx maps crash. Unable to connect to Iowa State server. Definitely a serious weather situation down in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City, IA where the reports, radar, warning information source data is located. Server overload or outage.
short range models all in agreeement
Latest trends suggest severe thunderstorms are likely today. Pushed to SEVERE. Worst near/along WI/IL border. Damaging winds the primary threat. I'll be in the area. Stay safe!
Small cluster of strong to severe t-storms w/ damaging wind gusts pushing through central WI atm. Models suggest weakening east of I39. Another t-storm event likely develops today/this aft for the rest of S WI.
Models trending more aggressive with t-storm activity SAT AM over northern & central WI. Remnants of overnight complex. Timing is poor for severe wx but at least will mention the chance of storms. Gradually weakening during the day.
Small cluster of thunderstorms continues through northern MN, set to head into northwest WI tonight. You can tell by the yellow SVR TSTORM WATCH that more development was expected into the Minneapolis region. Simply hasn't happened to this point and it's looking more likely that the existing storm cluster to head due east into far northern WI. A few damaging wind gusts overnight.
I've never waited until the last minute on so many events like I have in 2020. Storms have favored Minnesota and NW WI. I won't put THE ENTIRE STATE on blast if only a small percentage is potentially impacted. Low certainty. Slow year overall. I'm worried one will sneak through like Aug 2013. When you are least suspecting, it comes and need the message to get across. Miss miss miss, hit.
Models seem to be struggling on tstorm chances this weekend. Still think best chance for storms will be Sunday night or early Monday morning statewide with cold front. Just bizzare that latest models showing nothing SAT PM with heat/instability pool developing. Best chances north throughout the weekend. Some short range models sparse for SUN PM too. Dont want to rule out anything right now.
Based on top 10 coldest 8/4's in Green Bay, the following SEP-OCT looks like this. Interesting that early AUGUST cold suggests warmer/drier SEP-OCT.
00/06 EC/GFS focusing bulk of t-storm chance on Sunday night, less aggressive for SAT & MON. GFS pictured here.
In an average year, Wisconsin will have 11 days of severe t-storm activity after 8/5. The season is 75% over.