JUN MONTHLY REANALYSIS - was very good! How does it work? Reforecast previous month precip and temp trends based on actual monthly values for teleconnections. This helps isolated the forecast method to say that If I were able to correctly predict teleconnection indexes; it's possible to forecast trends months ahead. Always some uncertainty; for example what happened with AO in Nov 2019.
numerous thunderstorms continue across southern WI. Some are strong or severe with strong wind gusts, Heavy Rain. Large cluster of cells now entering SW WI will push east this afternoon.
Severe T-storm threat will continue for at least a few more hours. Damaging wind gusts and Heavy Rain the primary threats. Cell in Douglas county heading east looks vicious. Stay safe! Gust front will push off this activity into the rest of northern WI overnight.
A couple t-storms slipping through central WI thanks to an old OFB into strong instability. Not present on the models but there nonetheless. Possible these storms continue...also possible they fall apart.
Severe weather has been decreasing in Wisconsin year over year.
Heavy Rain west of Eau Claire over the last 12 hours. Rainfall in excess of 5", impassable roads and water rescues reported in Baldwin! This convective complex is moving east today likely to weaken somewhat. Isolated to scattered tstorms may develop across WI too. -JP
Choices choices choices. My concern is not committing to either and getting stuck in between. Process of elimination.
Very impressed with dynamic aspect of the approaching low/short wave. Needs to destabilize. Expecting the NAMhres to verify for southern WI.
Updated T-storm Forecast for this afternoon. Video forecast posted on the storm event page. Stay safe and take care! Thanks! https://www.wisconsinwx.com/storm.aspx?s=228
12z short range models show highest threat for severe storms across southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Sim radar img at 6PM.
Plenty of spotty convection throughout the warm sector as the warm front (WF) pushes into WI. The WF will not make it as far north as initially forecast, probably up between Madison and Oshkosh area. Working on more updates stay tuned.
Soaking rain atm from WI Dells to Shawano. Rain is stationary within the red dashed zone and will continue into early TUES AM. Rain totals around 1-2" in marked zone. No severe weather.
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radar estimated rainfall showing the Heavy Rains just southwest of the targeted area last night...in the vicinity of Waterloo, IA. One report of 6.0"!
12z NAM instability field for this afternoon could yield a severe storm in northern IL. It's possible this storm activity brushes the WI/IL border? I'm a bit skeptical of the situation however watching closely and will let you know if things change.
Nothing happening right now. Models handling the situation POORLY. Still expecting periods of rain and storms this aft/evening across S & E WI.
Heavy Rain with storm total rainfall into the 2-3" range near the WI/MN/IA intersection point and region immediately south before 7am MON. 1-2" in adjacent areas, perhaps east towards Madison.
pretty cloudy this AM will keep instability down. Pocket of weak of sbcape developing in SE WI which could support one or two briefly strong cells today
Weak rotation otherwise non severe cells moving northeast thru the Steven's Point region.
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Isolated tstorms this morning, Steven's Point with the most action atm. Not much lightning. Weak rotation within that cell cluster. Isolated showers for the rest of S WI could grow into tstorms today as they move NE.
STORM CHASING - Really just need some storms. Same ole issue. Slow start. Few opportunities. Wasted opportunities? I don't want to relive/reshare old chases...I wish to start anew. New footage. New adventures. I'm at the cusp. Ready to move forward. Just waiting.
JUN TEMPS - running above average across the central United States. Last few days have been perfect/cool in Wisconsin.
QUIET WEATHER - 11 days with severe weather in 2020 thus far. 2019 was slightly quieter with 9 by this date. Slow historically both years. Usually when I point it out it turns active. Not my intention. Any day now. 2019 had 34 days with severe weather after this date (and still a below avg year). Waiting... tough when nothing is happening. I think god wants us focused on something else right now.
Testing a new t-shirt design! Coming in July.
WIWX 9.58 - updated site navigation, composer (for posting comments) improved - now prevents empty posts. T-shirt/Merch link and donate page added to the MORE/Resources section. Small changes here and there including comment notifications via email appearance. Fixed issue with monthly forecasts + improved experience. Worked on admin tool org. Next work item is to reintroduce comments to profile pages which have been missing since comment rework in Fall 2019. Thanks!
Heavy Rain along the HWY 151 corridor. Storms nearly stationary. Could be a quick 1-2". More rain approaching from the west.
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Isolated showers north. Rain/t-storm southeast today. Heavy Rain is possible. Ending around sunset.
WIWX ALERTS - I don't push SMS/EMAIL message for EVERY UPDATE. Some things don't need to be sent out, less important, or redundant. Also I have to ability to target message sends by county; if you don't have a saved location in that specific county - you won't get the message. I'm open to suggestions. Perhaps we could add an entire domain distribution list...if you're on it; you'd get everything posted regardless of location or importance. Let me know what you think. Thanks!
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TS Cristobal entering final phase, will end overnight. Heavy Rain across the north atm. Reports of 4"+ in SE MN, NE IA and similar amounts could fall into the Eau Claire region.
Rainfall estimates coming in right on target. Several reports in the 4-5" range west of La Crosse. We'll see if those numbers translate up into the Eau Claire region as well. Still raining in the north. Scattered showers Weds PM will help boost totals in the eastern half of WI.
Here it comes. Heavy Rain approaching western WI from the south. Flash Flood Watch until 7:00AM tomorrow.
Latest rainfall forecast. 3-6" near/west of La Crosse up to Eau Claire. 2-3" across much of western WI. Around 1-2" in eastern WI. Scattered T-storms too.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - are back by popular demand and updated today through AUG. A few small improvements to go along with it. MAY did not go well so please remember the methods used are experimental.
STORM FORECASTS are now FREE to view to everyone again! Still need to be a member to receive alert messages. I've definitely gone back and forth over this. Lately I feel like opening it up might be the best thing for everyone.
Elbow hurts and swelled up yesterday while typing at the desk. Tendonitis or minor tear probably. I'm fine. It's risky in the office! Need to get into more Tornado Warnings and stop this dangerous behavior!
Simplification
Remember that niche. Remember what got you here. It's easy to lose focus when times are slow. When the weather is wild it makes it all worth it. Patience.
Storm event coming to an end. Satisfying chase, generally feel like I accomplished what I set out to do. Everything mostly went the way it was supposed to. Tomorrow will wrap up the footage into a video. Nothing amazing. Migraine all day today, need to sleep it off. Talk to you soon.
Development taking place now. Interesting evolution with cluster coming southeast out of Minneapolis region. New development near La Crosse as expected. How exactly these pieces come together is uncertain/ interesting...but it does central WI will almost certainly see a severe storm this evening.
4500 SBCAPE in central Wisconsin at 3PM. Source of energy for evening storms.
Not shooting for initiation with this event. Will move late in the event when location is clear. Otherwise you spend all day/night driving for little gain. Especially when the forecast path/corridor is your backyard.
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I'll be chasing Tuesday night. Could be live streaming from the office during the afternoon. On the hunt during the evening. These nighttime complex events are not great for chasing. Goals are simple this time: lightning, lightning illuminated structure, and a live stream opportunity. Shouldn't have to travel too far from KOSH.
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Isolated/scattered showers and storms working through today. A strong t-storm not out of the question but concern remains low. Severe storm west of Hinckley, MN has weakened.
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10:15AM - cell coming out of MN looks like trouble. No warnings yet. Additional development possible. Overall severe threat low. It might just be this one storm that does something.
MONDAY - Scattered thunderstorms likely across northern WI Monday during the day (better chances afternoon). Isolated chance of a rain shower or storm in the south based on latest data. A strong t-storm or two is possible supported by the SPC Day 2 Outlook. I'll let you know if anything changes.
THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS - Here are what my thunderstorm forecast zones mean: STRONG is somewhere between general and severe. A storm can produce a weak tornado but be non-severe otherwise. SEVERE equals numerous severe storms with all hazards, potentially widespread. SIGNIFICANT is for the worst of the worst, major outbreak or widespread concern...I haven't used a SIG zone yet in the 3 years I've been using this criteria. TARGET used to narrow down a zone of maximum impact.
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I've been interested in video forecasts lately. I can present so much more information that way. The BLOG method of communication feels old and outdated with regards to forecasting weather...the blog is still good for stories and recaps. Just discovering HOW & WHEN to use. Will require website reorganization.
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Brainstorming a new forecast update structure. Hard to know what's going on if you always have to dig for it. Solution seems to be putting a sample of all activity right on the surface, dig from there.
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FYI - All email messages seem to be hitting my spam/promotions folder. Maybe you can find a way to unspam it? Another reason I recommend having SMS/text messaging preference set. We have really good deliver-ability with SMS. I will be re-enabling blog posts to send via SMS on the next website update (disabled previously for reasons).
Updated monthly forecasts this morning removing some detail from the maps hopefully avoiding another May precip forecast repeat. Long weekend ahead and I'll be thinking of new things to try. I feel the need to simplify. We expanded so much over the winter and may have gone to far? Still trying to locate my niche. Thanks for your continued support! Talk to you soon!
THU 8:40 - morning round was focused along and south of the WI/IL border. Expect afternoon t-storm redevelopment to take place in Illinois. Gloomy day to begin, perhaps some sunny breaks later.
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